Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
46.47%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
47.01%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
49.03%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1372 | 4.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0880 | 6.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9089 | 129.84*** |
| γleverage | -0.0027 | -0.10 |
0.996
Persistence158d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1372 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9089 | 129.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0027 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
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