Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
41.65%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Week
42.30%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
44.72%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1360 | 19.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 25.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 518.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0016 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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