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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

42.92%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

43.53%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

45.83%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1357
19.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0879
25.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9090
520.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0020
-0.32

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

167 days