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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

41.65%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

42.30%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

44.72%

increased by 1.56%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1360
19.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
25.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9087
518.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0016
-0.25

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

169 days