V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.03%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
35.84%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
38.80%
increased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 168 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~168 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1334 | 4.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0877 | 6.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9093 | 130.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.0021 | -0.08 |
0.996
Persistence168d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1334 | 4.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9093 | 130.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0021 | -0.08 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
168 days
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