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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

39.87%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

40.55%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

43.08%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1349
19.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0877
25.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9092
521.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0022
-0.35

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

166 days