V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.81%
1 Week
33.45%
1 Month
35.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.2992 | 1.63 |
| αARCH | 0.0637 | 9.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9916 | 218.66*** |
| νDF | 6.5234 | 1.98** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.2992 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 9.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 218.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5234 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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