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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

44.03%

decreased by 1.83%

1 Week

44.36%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Month

45.57%

decreased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.4951
6.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
37.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9915
862.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4891
7.94***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days