V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.61%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
40.04%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
41.64%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.3819 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 37.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 861.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5005 | 7.91*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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