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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

38.51%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

38.97%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

40.67%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.3416
1.63
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
9.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9915
216.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5136
1.97**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

81 days