V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
41.03%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
41.42%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
42.89%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.4054 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 37.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 860.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4979 | 7.92*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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