V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
38.51%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
38.97%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
40.67%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.3416 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0636 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 216.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5136 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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