V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
53.66%
1 Week
53.78%
1 Month
54.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.3759 | 1.63 |
| αARCH | 0.0636 | 9.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9914 | 213.81*** |
| νDF | 6.5004 | 1.97** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.3759 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0636 | 9.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9914 | 213.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5004 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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