Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

53.66%

increased by 5.80%

1 Week

53.78%

increased by 5.92%

1 Month

54.22%

increased by 6.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 6.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst14.3759
1.63
αARCH0.0636
9.25***
βGARCH0.9914
213.81***
νDF6.5004
1.97**

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.3759
1.63
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
9.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9914
213.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5004
1.97**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days