Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
54.83%
1 Week
54.93%
1 Month
55.29%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 14.4211 | 1.65* |
| αscore | 0.0642 | 9.15*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9914 | 217.60*** |
| νDF | 6.6126 | 1.92* |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 14.4211 | 1.65* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0642 | 9.15*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9914 | 217.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6126 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
Other Henry Hub Natural Gas Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities