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Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

54.83%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

54.93%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

55.29%

decreased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 daysv = 6.61 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run14.4211
1.65*
αscore0.0642
9.15***
βpersistence0.9914
217.60***
νDF6.6126
1.92*

0.991

Persistence

80d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

14.4211
1.65*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0642
9.15***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9914
217.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6126
1.92*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days