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Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

52.89%

increased by 5.44%

1 Week

53.02%

increased by 5.57%

1 Month

53.51%

increased by 6.06%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 6.51 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run14.3422
1.63
αscore0.0635
9.27***
βpersistence0.9914
213.99***
νDF6.5078
1.96**

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

14.3422
1.63
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0635
9.27***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9914
213.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5078
1.96**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days