S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
35.85%
1 Week
35.89%
1 Month
36.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.2541 | 1.43 |
| αscore | 0.0628 | 13.95*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9946 | 259.55*** |
| νDF | 7.1147 | 2.08** |
0.995
Persistence128d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.2541 | 1.43 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0628 | 13.95*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9946 | 259.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1147 | 2.08** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
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