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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

41.60%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

41.57%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

41.48%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 daysv = 6.45 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.1135
1.33
αARCH0.0587
13.95***
βGARCH0.9948
256.80***
νDF6.4546
2.35**

0.995

Persistence

134d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.1135
1.33
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0587
13.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
256.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4546
2.35**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days