V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
43.15%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Week
43.12%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Month
42.97%
decreased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 133 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1129 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0588 | 13.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9948 | 254.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4329 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
133 days
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