S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
47.60%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Week
47.52%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Month
47.21%
decreased by 2.36%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 133 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.0987 | 5.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 55.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9948 | 1,018.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4380 | 9.39*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
133 days
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