V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
59.94%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
59.67%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Month
58.64%
decreased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 49% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0515 | 23.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 16.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 448.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0305 | 5.01*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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