S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
31.78%
increased by 1.61%
1 Week
31.92%
increased by 1.75%
1 Month
32.46%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0521 | 5.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0623 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9140 | 111.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.0304 | 1.25 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0521 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9140 | 111.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0304 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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