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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

47.42%

decreased by 1.87%

1 Week

47.29%

decreased by 2.00%

1 Month

46.81%

decreased by 2.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 49% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0530
23.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0628
16.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9133
442.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0306
4.98***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days