S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
45.50%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
45.35%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Month
44.92%
decreased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0536 | 18.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8984 | 308.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0455 | 13.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0220 | 10.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0344 | 11.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9612 | 282.45*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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