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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

45.50%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Week

45.35%

decreased by 1.91%

1 Month

44.92%

decreased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0536
18.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8984
308.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0455
13.34***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0220
10.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0344
11.62***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9612
282.45***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days