S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
50.61%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Week
50.36%
decreased by 2.96%
1 Month
49.42%
decreased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.43) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0619 | 21.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0928 | 46.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 505.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4348 | 15.66*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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