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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

70.25%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

70.06%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Month

69.32%

decreased by 2.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0136
12.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0353
33.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9612
862.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1988
-4.34***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

199 days