S&P GSCI Cocoa Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
70.25%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
70.06%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Month
69.32%
decreased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0136 | 12.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 33.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9612 | 862.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1988 | -4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
199 days
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