S&P GSCI Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.86%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
16.01%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
16.57%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0141 | 5.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 10.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9188 | 136.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0214 | 0.33 |
0.995
Persistence149d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0141 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9188 | 136.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0214 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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