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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.86%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

16.01%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

16.57%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0141
5.53***
αARCH0.0765
10.24***
βGARCH0.9188
136.14***
γleverage0.0214
0.33

0.995

Persistence

149d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0141
5.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0765
10.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9188
136.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0214
0.33

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days