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S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

20.43%

increased by 0.30%

1 Week

20.79%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

22.06%

increased by 1.93%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0418
3.95***
αARCH0.0475
5.90***
βGARCH0.9419
106.76***
γleverage-0.3310
-1.69*

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0418
3.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0475
5.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9419
106.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3310
-1.69*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days