V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.43%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
20.79%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
22.06%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0418 | 3.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0475 | 5.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9419 | 106.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.3310 | -1.69* |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0418 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0475 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9419 | 106.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3310 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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