V-Lab
COMEX Copper AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.72%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
20.83%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
21.24%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~110 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0195 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0419 | 6.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9518 | 118.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0551 | 0.28 |
0.994
Persistence110d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0419 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9518 | 118.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0551 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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