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V-Lab
V-Lab

COMEX Copper AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

20.72%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

20.83%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

21.24%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Copper AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~110 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0195
3.06***
αARCH0.0419
6.02***
βGARCH0.9518
118.12***
γleverage0.0551
0.28

0.994

Persistence

110d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0195
3.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0419
6.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9518
118.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0551
0.28

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days