V-Lab
LME/COMEX Aluminum AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.48%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
20.45%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Month
20.34%
decreased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.11) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0534 | 3.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0760 | 23.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8896 | 91.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1126 | -2.53** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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