V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
40.87%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
40.06%
decreased by 2.83%
1 Month
37.89%
decreased by 5.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.07) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2493 | 18.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 26.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8717 | 226.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0713 | -16.06*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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