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V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

40.87%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Week

40.06%

decreased by 2.83%

1 Month

37.89%

decreased by 5.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.07) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2493
18.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
26.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8717
226.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0713
-16.06***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days