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ICE US Coffee Arabica MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

39.20%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

38.89%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

38.20%

decreased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0756
5.75***
βGARCH0.8513
31.17***
γleverage-0.0727
-4.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0211
1.50
λ₂forecast adj.0.0127
3.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.9826
150.29***

0.891

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0756
5.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8513
31.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0727
-4.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0211
1.50
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0127
3.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9826
150.29***

Persistence:

0.891

Half-life:

6 days