V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.56%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
37.15%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
38.55%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0692 | 9.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0560 | 4.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8630 | 33.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0238 | -1.75* |
| γ2 | 0.0449 | 2.28** |
| γ3 | -0.0365 | -2.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.0342 | 3.39*** |
| γ5 | -0.0300 | -4.34*** |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0692 | 9.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0560 | 4.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8630 | 33.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0238 | -1.75* |
| γ2 | 0.0449 | 2.28** |
| γ3 | -0.0365 | -2.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.0342 | 3.39*** |
| γ5 | -0.0300 | -4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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