ICE US Coffee Arabica Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
60.26%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
57.82%
decreased by 3.69%
1 Month
51.30%
decreased by 10.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0699 | 9.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8663 | 33.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0249 | -1.78* |
| γ2 | 0.0468 | 2.32** |
| γ3 | -0.0380 | -3.03*** |
| γ4 | 0.0358 | 3.48*** |
| γ5 | -0.0312 | -4.44*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
Other ICE US Coffee Arabica Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities