ICE US Coffee Arabica Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
38.73%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
39.00%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
39.66%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0705 | 9.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0551 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8655 | 33.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.0444 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -0.0362 | -2.96*** |
| γ4 | 0.0341 | 3.38*** |
| γ5 | -0.0301 | -4.35*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0705 | 9.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8655 | 33.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.0444 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -0.0362 | -2.96*** |
| γ4 | 0.0341 | 3.38*** |
| γ5 | -0.0301 | -4.35*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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