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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

33.32%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

33.27%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

33.09%

decreased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0701
10.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0504
7.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9364
106.31***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.76

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days