Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

32.92%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

32.88%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

32.74%

decreased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0679
10.21***
αARCH0.0495
6.96***
βGARCH0.9375
107.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.74

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0679
10.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0495
6.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9375
107.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.74

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days