V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.94%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
28.86%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
28.58%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3227 | 9.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0470 | 7.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9394 | 119.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 3.26*** |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3227 | 9.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0470 | 7.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9394 | 119.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 3.26*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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