Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

28.94%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

28.86%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

28.58%

decreased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3227
9.75***
αARCH0.0470
7.29***
βGARCH0.9394
119.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.26***

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3227
9.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0470
7.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9394
119.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.26***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days