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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

31.87%

increased by 1.78%

1 Week

31.73%

increased by 1.64%

1 Month

31.20%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3251
9.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0471
7.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9394
118.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.25***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days