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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

24.96%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

24.99%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

25.08%

decreased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3204
9.79***
αARCH0.0465
7.31***
βGARCH0.9399
120.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.27***

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3204
9.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0465
7.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9399
120.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.27***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days