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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

25.74%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

25.75%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

25.76%

decreased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3239
9.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0469
7.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9395
118.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.29***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days