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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

25.10%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

25.12%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

25.19%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3228
9.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0467
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9396
119.12***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.32***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days