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V-Lab

CBOT Oats Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

63.38%

decreased by 31.59%

1 Week

46.59%

decreased by 48.38%

1 Month

37.56%

decreased by 57.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Oats S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2007
6.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0846
3.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3565
1.16
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.7198
-7.54***
γ20.9329
6.74***
γ3-0.2797
-4.10***
γ40.0958
1.78*
γ5-0.0391
-0.61
γ6-0.0152
-0.24
γ70.0955
1.47
γ8-0.1446
-2.09**
γ90.1035
2.01**

Persistence:

0.441

Half-life:

1 days