V-Lab
CBOT Oats Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
34.27%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
34.59%
increased by 1.31%
1 Month
34.70%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1804 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 3.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2980 | 0.99 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8670 | -7.28*** |
| γ2 | 1.0629 | 6.45*** |
| γ3 | -0.1924 | -2.34** |
| γ4 | -0.0635 | -0.90 |
| γ5 | 0.1453 | 2.43** |
| γ6 | -0.1703 | -2.48** |
| γ7 | 0.1222 | 1.33 |
| γ8 | 0.0067 | 0.06 |
| γ9 | -0.1133 | -0.98 |
| γ10 | 0.0967 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.385
Half-life:
1 days
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