CBOE Volatility Index

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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	76
αARCH	0.1091	2.71***
βGARCH	0.3664	1.65*
γleverage	-0.0559	-1.33
λ₁tau intercept	0.2822	1.04
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0813	1.39
λ₃tau persistence	0.8739	8.70***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	76
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1091	2.71***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.3664	1.65*
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0559	-1.33
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.2822	1.04
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0813	1.39
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.8739	8.70***

V-Lab

CBOT Oats MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other CBOT Oats Analyses