CBOT Oats GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
36.62%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
38.49%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
38.94%
increased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Oct 30, 2026Boundary Parameters
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 8.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0938 | 1.46 |
| βGARCH | 0.0567 | 0.95 |
| γleverage | 0.0487 | 0.43 |
0.175
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 8.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0938 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0567 | 0.95 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0487 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.175
Half-life:
0 days
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