CBOT Oats GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
40.91%
increased by 3.91%
1 Week
39.55%
increased by 2.55%
1 Month
39.21%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026Boundary Parameters
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 8.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 1.46 |
| βGARCH | 0.0570 | 0.96 |
| γleverage | 0.0502 | 0.44 |
0.176
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 8.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0570 | 0.96 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0502 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.176
Half-life:
0 days
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