V-Lab
CBOT Oats GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.35%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
39.43%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Month
39.20%
decreased by 1.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Boundary Parameters
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 8.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 1.46 |
| βGARCH | 0.0586 | 0.96 |
| γleverage | 0.0497 | 0.44 |
0.177
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 8.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0586 | 0.96 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0497 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.177
Half-life:
0 days
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