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V-Lab

CBOT Oats GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

40.91%

increased by 3.91%

1 Week

39.55%

increased by 2.55%

1 Month

39.21%

increased by 2.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Oats GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026
Boundary Parameters
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
8.91***
αARCH0.0936
1.46
βGARCH0.0570
0.96
γleverage0.0502
0.44

0.176

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
8.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0936
1.46
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0570
0.96
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0502
0.44

Persistence:

0.176

Half-life:

0 days