V-Lab
CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
54.65%
increased by 2.22%
1 Week
54.41%
increased by 1.98%
1 Month
53.52%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 3.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.0999 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0814 | 8.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9859 | 63.72*** |
| νDF | 3.1152 | 7.69*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0999 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 8.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 63.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1152 | 7.69*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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