V-Lab
CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
42.27%
increased by 5.67%
1 Week
42.35%
increased by 5.75%
1 Month
42.63%
increased by 6.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0406 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0815 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9857 | 62.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1145 | 7.61*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
Other CBOT Oats Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities