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V-Lab

CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

42.06%

increased by 2.07%

1 Week

42.15%

increased by 2.16%

1 Month

42.48%

increased by 2.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.0996
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0822
34.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9858
252.76***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1091
31.02***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days