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CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

54.65%

increased by 2.22%

1 Week

54.41%

increased by 1.98%

1 Month

53.52%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 3.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.0999
0.95
αARCH0.0814
8.66***
βGARCH0.9859
63.72***
νDF3.1152
7.69***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.0999
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0814
8.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9859
63.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1152
7.69***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days