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V-Lab

CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

66.09%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

65.60%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

63.77%

decreased by 2.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.0867
3.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0822
34.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9859
256.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1242
30.91***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days