CBOT Oats GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
66.09%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
65.60%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
63.77%
decreased by 2.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0867 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0822 | 34.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 256.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1242 | 30.91*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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