S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
22.59%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
22.54%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
22.36%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 daysv = 9.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5413 | 2.56** |
| αARCH | 0.0361 | 8.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9909 | 226.90*** |
| νDF | 9.3869 | 0.75 |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5413 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0361 | 8.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9909 | 226.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3869 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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