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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

22.59%

increased by 0.43%

1 Week

22.54%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

22.36%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 daysv = 9.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5413
2.56**
αARCH0.0361
8.09***
βGARCH0.9909
226.90***
νDF9.3869
0.75

0.991

Persistence

76d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5413
2.56**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0361
8.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9909
226.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3869
0.75

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days