S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
30.76%
increased by 2.33%
1 Week
30.60%
increased by 2.17%
1 Month
29.99%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5611 | 9.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0366 | 31.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9911 | 888.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4309 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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