V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.32%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
25.24%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
24.91%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5572 | 9.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0364 | 32.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9911 | 900.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4113 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities