Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

30.76%

increased by 2.33%

1 Week

30.60%

increased by 2.17%

1 Month

29.99%

increased by 1.56%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5611
9.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
31.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9911
888.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4309
3.00***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days