V-Lab
S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
18.05%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
18.04%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
17.98%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1713 | 11.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0517 | 34.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 1,076.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1414 | 3.94*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
73 days
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