V-Lab
S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
19.17%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
19.13%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
19.00%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1718 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 8.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 269.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1529 | 0.98 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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