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S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.42%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

15.49%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

15.75%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0038
2.90***
αARCH0.1265
11.38***
βGARCH0.9893
419.89***
γleverage0.0100
1.09

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0038
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1265
11.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
419.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0100
1.09

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days