S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.42%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
15.49%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
15.75%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0038 | 2.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1265 | 11.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 419.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.0100 | 1.09 |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 11.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 419.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0100 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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