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V-Lab

COMEX Silver EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

45.79%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

45.80%

decreased by 1.98%

1 Month

45.84%

decreased by 1.94%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Silver EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 34% more than negative returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0198
14.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1199
24.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9907
1,610.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0175
4.34***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days