COMEX Silver EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
45.79%
decreased by 1.99%
1 Week
45.80%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Month
45.84%
decreased by 1.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 34% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0198 | 14.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 24.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 1,610.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0175 | 4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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