V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.29%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
17.36%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
17.64%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1260 | 10.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9847 | 310.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.0032 | 0.32 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1260 | 10.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 310.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0032 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
Other S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Commodities