S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.04%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
16.14%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
16.55%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0064 | 4.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0748 | 7.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9964 | 843.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.0055 | 0.51 |
0.996
Persistence193d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 843.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0055 | 0.51 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
193 days
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