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S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.04%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

16.14%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

16.55%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0064
4.09***
αARCH0.0748
7.72***
βGARCH0.9964
843.71***
γleverage0.0055
0.51

0.996

Persistence

193d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0064
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
7.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9964
843.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0055
0.51

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

193 days