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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

13.83%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

13.97%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

14.53%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 181 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0102
12.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0359
34.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9603
884.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1533
-3.29***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

181 days