S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.83%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
13.97%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
14.53%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 181 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0102 | 12.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 34.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9603 | 884.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1533 | -3.29*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
181 days
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