V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.00%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
21.95%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
21.75%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0196 | 4.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0446 | 7.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9424 | 124.53*** |
| γleverage | -0.1266 | -1.44 |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0196 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0446 | 7.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9424 | 124.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1266 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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