Henry Hub Natural Gas AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
49.64%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
50.13%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
52.00%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1402 | 5.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0890 | 10.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9067 | 129.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0244 | 0.08 |
0.996
Persistence159d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1402 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0890 | 10.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9067 | 129.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0244 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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