V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.24%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
38.97%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
41.72%
increased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1375 | 19.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0889 | 40.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 517.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0258 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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