Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

49.64%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Week

50.13%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

52.00%

increased by 1.03%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1402
5.04***
αARCH0.0890
10.14***
βGARCH0.9067
129.04***
γleverage0.0244
0.08

0.996

Persistence

159d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1402
5.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0890
10.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9067
129.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0244
0.08

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

159 days