Skip to main content
V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

38.24%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

38.97%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

41.72%

increased by 2.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1375
19.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0889
40.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9069
517.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0258
0.34

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

167 days