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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

68.95%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Week

68.91%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Month

68.73%

decreased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Cocoa AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 687 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0025
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0251
25.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9739
910.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3997
-6.03***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

687 days