ICE US Cocoa AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
68.95%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
68.91%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
68.73%
decreased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 687 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0251 | 25.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9739 | 910.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3997 | -6.03*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
687 days
Other ICE US Cocoa Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Commodities