ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
44.45%
1 Week
44.42%
1 Month
44.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 363 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.1570 | 1.59 |
| αscore | 0.0269 | 9.73*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9981 | 1,095.60*** |
| νDF | 7.0638 | 1.92* |
0.998
Persistence363d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.1570 | 1.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0269 | 9.73*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 1,095.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0638 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
363 days
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