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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

68.68%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

68.60%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Month

68.29%

decreased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 432 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4362
7.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0259
39.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9984
6,087.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7203
9.63***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

432 days