V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
68.68%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
68.60%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Month
68.29%
decreased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 432 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4362 | 7.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0259 | 39.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 6,087.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7203 | 9.63*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
432 days
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