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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

61.89%

increased by 1.74%

1 Week

61.83%

increased by 1.68%

1 Month

61.57%

increased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 421 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.3758
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0258
9.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9984
1,448.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7074
2.38**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

421 days