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ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

44.45%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

44.42%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Month

44.30%

decreased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 363 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~363 daysv = 7.06 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.1570
1.59
αscore0.0269
9.73***
βpersistence0.9981
1,095.60***
νDF7.0638
1.92*

0.998

Persistence

363d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.1570
1.59
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0269
9.73***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9981
1,095.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0638
1.92*

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

363 days