ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
71.71%
increased by 3.63%
1 Week
71.62%
increased by 3.54%
1 Month
71.29%
increased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 433 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4574 | 7.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0259 | 39.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 6,162.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7184 | 9.67*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
433 days
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