V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
61.89%
increased by 1.74%
1 Week
61.83%
increased by 1.68%
1 Month
61.57%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 421 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.3758 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0258 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 1,448.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7074 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
421 days
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