ICE US Cocoa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
50.55%
1 Week
50.51%
1 Month
50.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 388 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.2324 | 1.67* |
| αARCH | 0.0261 | 9.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 1,236.94*** |
| νDF | 6.6857 | 2.29** |
0.998
Persistence388d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.2324 | 1.67* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0261 | 9.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,236.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6857 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
388 days
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