V-Lab
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
34.15%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
34.64%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
36.42%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.1114 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0638 | 10.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9895 | 270.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1991 | 1.32 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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