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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

34.15%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

34.64%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

36.42%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.1114
2.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0638
10.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
270.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1991
1.32

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days