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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

41.03%

increased by 0.19%

1 Week

41.32%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

42.37%

increased by 1.53%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.1994
11.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0639
39.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
1,081.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1991
5.30***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days