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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

46.00%

increased by 3.73%

1 Week

46.15%

increased by 3.88%

1 Month

46.73%

increased by 4.46%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 9.22 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst11.1258
2.87***
αARCH0.0639
10.00***
βGARCH0.9894
270.41***
νDF9.2161
1.32

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.1258
2.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0639
10.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9894
270.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2161
1.32

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days