S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
41.03%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
41.32%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
42.37%
increased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.1994 | 11.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 39.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9895 | 1,081.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1991 | 5.30*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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