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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

31.73%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Week

32.31%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

34.37%

increased by 1.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 9.22 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst11.0979
2.84***
αARCH0.0638
10.05***
βGARCH0.9896
272.99***
νDF9.2206
1.33

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.0979
2.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0638
10.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9896
272.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2206
1.33

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days