V-Lab
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.73%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
32.31%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
34.37%
increased by 1.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 9.22 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.0979 | 2.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0638 | 10.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9896 | 272.99*** |
| νDF | 9.2206 | 1.33 |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.0979 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0638 | 10.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9896 | 272.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2206 | 1.33 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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