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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

16.10%

increased by 0.63%

1 Week

16.16%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

16.36%

increased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3713
14.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0452
31.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
1,149.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.9984
3.72***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days