V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.79%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
18.79%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
18.78%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 10.05 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3763 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0449 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9896 | 291.15*** |
| νDF | 10.0537 | 0.92 |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3763 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0449 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9896 | 291.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.0537 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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