Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.79%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

18.79%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

18.78%

decreased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 10.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3763
3.57***
αARCH0.0449
7.95***
βGARCH0.9896
291.15***
νDF10.0537
0.92

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3763
3.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0449
7.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9896
291.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.0537
0.92

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days