V-Lab
RBOB Gasoline AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
50.88%
decreased by 3.25%
1 Week
50.59%
decreased by 3.54%
1 Month
49.61%
decreased by 4.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.18) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2469 | 18.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 25.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 185.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1836 | 3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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