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V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

50.88%

decreased by 3.25%

1 Week

50.59%

decreased by 3.54%

1 Month

49.61%

decreased by 4.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.18) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2469
18.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1081
25.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8616
185.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1836
3.60***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days