RBOB Gasoline GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
34.41%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
35.13%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
37.40%
increased by 3.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 05:19 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2399 | 4.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.1047 | 6.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8659 | 45.26*** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2399 | 4.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1047 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 45.26*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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