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V-Lab

RBOB Gasoline GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

34.41%

increased by 0.81%

1 Week

35.13%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

37.40%

increased by 3.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 05:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RBOB Gasoline GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2399
4.66***
αARCH0.1047
6.02***
βGARCH0.8659
45.26***

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2399
4.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1047
6.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8659
45.26***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days