CME Live Cattle GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
16.76%
increased by 0.94%
1 Month
17.86%
increased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2920 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1544 | 5.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6279 | 11.65*** |
0.782
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2920 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1544 | 5.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6279 | 11.65*** |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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