V-Lab
CME Live Cattle GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.23%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Week
19.61%
decreased by 3.11%
1 Month
18.82%
decreased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2922 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1551 | 5.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6277 | 11.65*** |
0.783
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2922 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1551 | 5.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6277 | 11.65*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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