V-Lab
CME Live Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.55%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
16.61%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
17.82%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2955 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1486 | 2.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6250 | 11.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0124 | 0.18 |
0.780
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2955 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6250 | 11.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0124 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.780
Half-life:
3 days
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