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CME Live Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

15.55%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

16.61%

increased by 1.08%

1 Month

17.82%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2955
5.35***
αARCH0.1486
2.65***
βGARCH0.6250
11.55***
γleverage0.0124
0.18

0.780

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2955
5.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1486
2.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6250
11.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0124
0.18

Persistence:

0.780

Half-life:

3 days