V-Lab
CME Live Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
25.08%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
22.94%
decreased by 2.73%
1 Month
20.02%
decreased by 5.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2937 | 5.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1502 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6249 | 11.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0118 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.781
Half-life:
3 days
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