CME Live Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.24%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
18.30%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
18.38%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2944 | 21.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1505 | 10.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6243 | 46.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0130 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.781
Half-life:
3 days
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