CME Live Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.31%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
16.46%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
17.76%
increased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2959 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1479 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6243 | 11.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0137 | 0.19 |
0.779
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2959 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1479 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6243 | 11.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0137 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.779
Half-life:
3 days
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