V-Lab
CME Live Cattle Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
22.66%
increased by 1.31%
1 Week
21.66%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
21.00%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4636 | 4.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1507 | 5.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4484 | 6.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3139 | -4.31*** |
| γ2 | 0.3654 | 3.30*** |
| γ3 | -0.0401 | -0.53 |
| γ4 | -0.0563 | -0.95 |
| γ5 | 0.1653 | 2.73*** |
| γ6 | -0.2316 | -3.26*** |
| γ7 | 0.0903 | 1.14 |
| γ8 | 0.1072 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.0955 | -0.72 |
0.599
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4636 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1507 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4484 | 6.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3139 | -4.31*** |
| γ2 | 0.3654 | 3.30*** |
| γ3 | -0.0401 | -0.53 |
| γ4 | -0.0563 | -0.95 |
| γ5 | 0.1653 | 2.73*** |
| γ6 | -0.2316 | -3.26*** |
| γ7 | 0.0903 | 1.14 |
| γ8 | 0.1072 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.0955 | -0.72 |
Persistence:
0.599
Half-life:
1 days
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