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V-Lab
V-Lab

CME Live Cattle Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

22.66%

increased by 1.31%

1 Week

21.66%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

21.00%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4636
4.99***
αARCH0.1507
5.17***
βGARCH0.4484
6.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3139
-4.31***
γ20.3654
3.30***
γ3-0.0401
-0.53
γ4-0.0563
-0.95
γ50.1653
2.73***
γ6-0.2316
-3.26***
γ70.0903
1.14
γ80.1072
1.24
γ9-0.0955
-0.72

0.599

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4636
4.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1507
5.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4484
6.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3139
-4.31***
γ20.3654
3.30***
γ3-0.0401
-0.53
γ4-0.0563
-0.95
γ50.1653
2.73***
γ6-0.2316
-3.26***
γ70.0903
1.14
γ80.1072
1.24
γ9-0.0955
-0.72

Persistence:

0.599

Half-life:

1 days