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CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.99%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

20.90%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Month

20.59%

decreased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 3.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3001
0.90
αARCH0.0548
4.70***
βGARCH0.9837
51.13***
νDF3.5325
2.70***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3001
0.90
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0548
4.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9837
51.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5325
2.70***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days