CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.61%
increased by 1.28%
1 Week
14.72%
increased by 1.39%
1 Month
15.09%
increased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 3.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.2907 | 0.96 |
| αscore | 0.0539 | 5.50*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9859 | 65.41*** |
| νDF | 3.8770 | 2.42** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.2907 | 0.96 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0539 | 5.50*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 65.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8770 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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