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CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.61%

increased by 1.28%

1 Week

14.72%

increased by 1.39%

1 Month

15.09%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 3.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.2907
0.96
αscore0.0539
5.50***
βpersistence0.9859
65.41***
νDF3.8770
2.42**

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.2907
0.96
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0539
5.50***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9859
65.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8770
2.42**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days