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V-Lab

CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

17.38%

increased by 0.49%

1 Week

17.41%

increased by 0.52%

1 Month

17.49%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2961
3.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
18.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9835
202.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5255
10.76***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days