V-Lab
CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.99%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
20.90%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
20.59%
decreased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 3.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3001 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.0548 | 4.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9837 | 51.13*** |
| νDF | 3.5325 | 2.70*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3001 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 4.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9837 | 51.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5325 | 2.70*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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