V-Lab
CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
17.38%
increased by 0.49%
1 Week
17.41%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
17.49%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2961 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 18.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9835 | 202.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5255 | 10.76*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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