V-Lab
CME Live Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
16.55%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
16.60%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
16.77%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2900 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9836 | 50.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5335 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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