ICE US Coffee Arabica Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
38.81%
increased by 1.51%
1 Week
39.14%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
40.06%
increased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2415 | 15.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0505 | 4.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8926 | 43.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 5.09*** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2415 | 15.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0505 | 4.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8926 | 43.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 5.09*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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