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V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

38.81%

increased by 1.51%

1 Week

39.14%

increased by 1.84%

1 Month

40.06%

increased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2415
15.62***
αARCH0.0505
4.89***
βGARCH0.8926
43.07***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0029
5.09***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2415
15.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0505
4.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8926
43.07***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0029
5.09***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days