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S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

22.53%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

22.54%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

22.57%

decreased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 486 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~486 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0035
3.12***
αARCH0.0380
4.96***
βGARCH0.9606
127.39***

0.999

Persistence

486d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0035
3.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
4.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9606
127.39***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

486 days