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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

32.17%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Week

32.05%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Month

31.64%

decreased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOT Rough Rice AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.20) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0658
16.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0908
31.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8886
288.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2001
5.33***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days