CBOT Rough Rice AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
32.17%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
32.05%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Month
31.64%
decreased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.20) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0658 | 16.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0908 | 31.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8886 | 288.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2001 | 5.33*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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