V-Lab
CBOT Rough Rice EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.26%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
25.55%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
26.57%
increased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0393 | 12.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1855 | 21.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9706 | 319.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0083 | -1.04 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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