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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.41%

increased by 3.01%

1 Week

27.39%

increased by 2.99%

1 Month

27.33%

increased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 02:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8129
5.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0625
37.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
502.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3082
16.78***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days