V-Lab
CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
25.71%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
25.72%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
25.77%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7551 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 36.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9895 | 499.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4045 | 15.73*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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