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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

25.71%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

25.72%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

25.77%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7551
5.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
36.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
499.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4045
15.73***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days