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CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.79%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

17.06%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

18.03%

increased by 1.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 03:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-lifev = 4.76 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.7525
1.55
αscore0.0656
8.82***
βpersistence0.9884
122.80***
νDF4.7570
3.44***

0.988

Persistence

59d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.7525
1.55
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0656
8.82***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9884
122.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7570
3.44***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days