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CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.83%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Week

21.94%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Month

22.31%

decreased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC

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graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 4.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7368
1.41
αARCH0.0611
9.04***
βGARCH0.9895
124.71***
νDF4.4155
3.89***

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7368
1.41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0611
9.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
124.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4155
3.89***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days