CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.09%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
19.26%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
19.88%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 4.42 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.7259 | 1.41 |
| αscore | 0.0610 | 9.02*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9894 | 124.65*** |
| νDF | 4.4205 | 3.87*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.7259 | 1.41 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0610 | 9.02*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9894 | 124.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4205 | 3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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