V-Lab
CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.79%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
25.80%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
25.84%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7514 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0613 | 36.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9895 | 502.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4199 | 15.65*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
66 days
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