CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.41%
increased by 3.01%
1 Week
27.39%
increased by 2.99%
1 Month
27.33%
increased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 02:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8129 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 37.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 502.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3082 | 16.78*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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