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CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

19.09%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

19.26%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

19.88%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 4.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.7259
1.41
αscore0.0610
9.02***
βpersistence0.9894
124.65***
νDF4.4205
3.87***

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.7259
1.41
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0610
9.02***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9894
124.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4205
3.87***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days