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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

26.47%

increased by 3.38%

1 Week

26.46%

increased by 3.37%

1 Month

26.45%

increased by 3.36%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7536
5.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0612
36.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
503.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4138
15.71***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days