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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

25.79%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

25.80%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

25.84%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7514
5.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0613
36.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
502.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4199
15.65***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

66 days