V-Lab
CBOT Rough Rice GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.53%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
23.76%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
24.54%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0712 | 17.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0887 | 30.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8890 | 284.84*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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