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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.53%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

23.76%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

24.54%

increased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOT Rough Rice GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0712
17.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0887
30.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8890
284.84***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days