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{name} Model Equation

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Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0771	27.15***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8911	266.81***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0035	0.86
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0028	4.26***
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0044	4.88***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9946	868.62***

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CBOT Rough Rice MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

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News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other CBOT Rough Rice Analyses