Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.24%

increased by 1.10%

1 Week

23.49%

increased by 1.35%

1 Month

24.35%

increased by 2.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0714
17.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
20.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8885
277.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0053
0.65

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days