CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.96%
increased by 3.77%
1 Week
28.05%
increased by 3.86%
1 Month
28.34%
increased by 4.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0723 | 16.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0961 | 16.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8836 | 254.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0001 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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