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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

26.74%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

26.82%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

27.10%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0712
17.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0868
20.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8886
277.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0051
0.62

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days