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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

18.55%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

19.09%

increased by 0.52%

1 Month

20.83%

increased by 2.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0713
4.41***
αARCH0.0854
5.03***
βGARCH0.8888
69.75***
γleverage0.0071
0.22

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0713
4.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
5.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8888
69.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0071
0.22

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days