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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.96%

increased by 3.77%

1 Week

28.05%

increased by 3.86%

1 Month

28.34%

increased by 4.15%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0723
16.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0961
16.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8836
254.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0001
0.01

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days