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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.62%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

21.96%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

23.10%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC

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graph of CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0714
4.41***
αARCH0.0859
5.03***
βGARCH0.8887
69.65***
γleverage0.0063
0.20

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0714
4.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0859
5.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8887
69.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0063
0.20

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days