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V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

27.23%

increased by 6.00%

1 Week

27.29%

increased by 6.06%

1 Month

27.49%

increased by 6.26%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0712
17.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0865
20.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8889
278.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0051
0.62

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days