CBOT Rough Rice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
18.55%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
19.09%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
20.83%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0713 | 4.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0854 | 5.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8888 | 69.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.0071 | 0.22 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0713 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 5.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 69.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0071 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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