S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
17.34%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
17.38%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
17.50%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0038 | 2.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1265 | 11.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 420.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.0099 | 1.08 |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 11.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 420.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0099 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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