S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
43.34%
decreased by 2.85%
1 Week
43.15%
decreased by 3.04%
1 Month
42.49%
decreased by 3.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0330 | 16.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1604 | 25.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9813 | 953.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0427 | -8.74*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
Other S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Commodities