S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
30.99%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
31.24%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
32.14%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 72% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0324 | 4.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.1592 | 6.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9818 | 244.11*** |
| γleverage | -0.0423 | -2.18** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0324 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1592 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9818 | 244.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0423 | -2.18** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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