S&P GSCI Wheat Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
33.80%
increased by 4.58%
1 Week
33.69%
increased by 4.47%
1 Month
33.29%
increased by 4.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0117 | 14.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1040 | 38.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 1,793.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0261 | 11.34*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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