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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Wheat Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

33.80%

increased by 4.58%

1 Week

33.69%

increased by 4.47%

1 Month

33.29%

increased by 4.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Wheat Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0117
14.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1040
38.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
1,793.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0261
11.34***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days